Both Russian and South Korean experts believe that this is a serious step forward in comparison with the previous launches where missiles exploded in the air having covered a mere several kilometres. Moreover, the missile was launched at a steep angle and had it been an actual military launch, it might have covered about one thousand kilometres.
According to a report of the Korean Central News Agency, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who personally observed the launch, called it “the greatest success and the greatest victory”, and noted that North Korea thus “became one of the major nuclear-weapon states able to deliver nuclear strikes.”
The type of the missile is being determined. According to the Combined Chiefs of Staff of the Republic of Korea Armed Forces, it was a KN-11 – a solid-propellant ballistic missile launched from submarines. North Korea calls it Bukgeukseong-1 – Polar star-1 – or Hwaseong-10.
And while the photos depict a Towed Underwater Launch Platform, the missile launch has provoked discussions that a submarine for such missiles is being constructed or has been constructed. According to Professor Pak Hwi-rak of the Kookmin University, Pyongyang “might have developed a submarine capable of carrying ballistic missiles, or it is already building it.” Other experts believe that the missile has been launched from a 2,000 ton submarine, but it can only remain submerged for a few hours and only has a launcher for one missile. Yet others suppose that the North is working on larger 3000-ton submarines and a new base is being constructed near the port city of Sinpo in South Hamgyong Province. This information is confirmed by the information website, 38 North, which specializes in issues related to North Korea. Joseph Bermudez, an American expert on the North Korean weapons, has also stated that Pyongyang is constructing a submarine.
As a result, the South Korean media are reporting that Pyongyang will be able to introduce Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM) into service at the beginning of next year, while its Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (IDM) has been put on the back burner. This is due to the fact that the IDM has a number of limitations, including high detection probability at the launch stage. SLBM is quite difficult to detect and what’s more this type of missile will be difficult to intercept by the THAAD system. In general, submarines are able to move secretly and evade missile defence systems and appear off the coast of the enemy.
The reason for the launch right now is clear – this is how North Korea responded to the start of the large-scale military manoeuvres, Ulchi Freedom Guardian, in the territory of South Korea, involving 75 thousand soldiers and officers of the United States and South Korea, as well as several hundred soldiers from nine other countries. Furthermore, as part of the same exercises, state and public institutions in South Korea are conducting civil defence training with the participation of 480 thousand South Korean citizens.
According to the South Koreans, the North Korean leader “is trying to demonstrate his confidence in possibly overcoming the crisis in the system caused by international sanctions” and “he is eager to demonstrate the ability to strike against the United States by all means.” In this context, the South Korean government condemned the launch emphasizing that such actions would lead to the self-destruction of North Korea and increased international isolation.
Representative of the US Department of State Elizabeth Trudeau also states that the missile system tests of Pyongyang threaten the USA and its allies, violate several resolutions of the UN Security Council, and jeopardise civil aviation and maritime trade, thus, the international community should confront it.
However, the moment of going to press, it is clear that the problems of the Security Council’s reaction are similar to those that it faced on August 3 when the North Koreans launched Rodong. Back then, the United States proposed that the Security Council issue a press statement condemning Pyongyang’s actions but the document was not agreed upon due to objections from the Chinese delegation. According to Ramlan bin Ibrahim, a representative of Malaysia, an agreement to consider the statement for the media was reached during a closed session of the Council. The Security Council “severely condemns” the launch, stressing that “such actions contribute to the development of the delivery systems of North Korean nuclear weapon and increase tension,” and expresses regrets that Pyongyang “channels resources to ballistic missiles while the needs of the people of North Korea remain neglected”. It has wagged its finger rather emphatically.
The condemning statement turned out to be the rotten apple that spoils the whole barrel during the meeting between the Foreign Affairs Ministers of South Korea, China and Japan – it was not clear whether the meeting would come to an official close without it. North Korea was reprimanded in order to demonstrate to the media that there had been a positive result of the event.
And what was the result? It looks like North Korea possesses a two-stage solid-fuel ballistic missile capable of delivering a payload 1,000 km or further that actually flies well. If we compare the development of the missile program with the forecasts of experts, the North is working ahead of schedule, spending about $100 million a year on its missile and space programs, according to some unconfirmed reports. Previously, most analysts supposed that North Korea’s SLBMs were not ready and doubted that a fully-fledged launch would take place so soon. Meanwhile, SLBMs of this type are not limited to operation on submarines. Acco
Of course, a successful launch may not immediately lead to serial production and it is not clear whether the North Korean SLBM will curb or exacerbate the regional tension. It looks like we can expect more interesting news by the end of the year.
Konstantin Asmolov, Ph.D. in History, Chief Research Fellow at the Center for Korean Studies of the Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
