The bad news is that the situation is neither deteriorating nor improving. Fussiness and mutual demonization persist and neither party is willing to change its stance.
Let us take a look at the state of affairs in South Korea. On March 15, the Cabinet of South Korea announced the fourth Friday of March a West Sea Protection Day honoring servicemen who lost their lives during the sinking of Cheonan warship and shelling of Yeonpyeong Island in 2010. This commemoration is supposed to remind of the need to protect the Northern demarcation line (continuously contested by North Korea) serving as a sea border separating two Koreas.
This event was observed for the first time this year, on March 25. South Korean President Park Geun-hye and members of the Cabinet were present at the National Cemetery in Daejon and participated in the commemoration ceremony. In her address, the head of the state said that no provocations could weaken the democratic state located in the south of the Korean Peninsula. She also noted that the probability of anew, even more reckless provocations is as high as ever. For the above reasons, South Korean armed forces have to be on instant alert.
The ROK continues the distribution of leaflets (activists of the North Korea Freedom Coalition, including some defectors from North Korea have recently distributed 80 thousand leaflets). South Korea makes statement after statement speculating that North Korea is preparing for more provocations, acts of terrorism or even nuclear tests.
As part of a continuing drill, South Korean air forces practiced a large-scale pre-emptive strike against the principle military facilities of North Korea. Eight McDonnell Douglas F-15E Strike Eagles, four General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcons and four T-50 Golden Eagles strike fighters as well as two Lockheed C-130 Hercules military transport planes participated in the exercise. After practicing a simulated aerial battle against North Korean strike fighters, strikes were delivered against North Korean fake nuclear sites and command posts. High-precision “air to a surface” JDAM ammunition was used in the battle. Then, C-130H military transport planes, under cover of strike fighters, practiced a paratroop operation.
Now, let us see what is going on in North Korea. In response to a large-scale US-South Korea Military Exercise North Koreans also launched drills. But if in the case with US-ROK mass media provided just a general coverage of the events, South Koreans have a fit of hysteria after the launch of each North Korean missiles, and the press unfailingly dubs it a “new armed provocation.” On March 21, five small range missiles were fired in the vicinity of Hamhung, South Hamgyong Province (the missile was directed toward the sea). On March 29, there were launches near the city of Wonsan (missiles were directed in the northeastern direction). In total, North Korea launched 16 small and medium range missiles in March 2016, including those fired from a large-caliber multiple rocket launcher—an action harshly criticized in the statement of the Security Council released on March 18.
On March 24, Pyongyang threatened to take “decisive actions,” and the North Korean Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland, released a statement that reads that Pyongyang is ready to wedge the so-called “retaliatory war.” Pyongyang “is not going to put up with senseless military provocations” and is prepared to use its combat-ready large caliber rocket launchers to destroy the Blue House (the residence of South Korean president). “It takes, but a pressing of the button for the Blue House to parish in a sea of flames.” On March 25, when the West Sea Protection Day was observed in South Korea, Kim Jong-un guided test firing of large-caliber multiple rocket launcher calling upon his servicemen to be ready “to deliver brutal attacks against reactionary facilities of Seoul if a respective order comes.” Approximately at the same time, North Korean armed forces headed by Kim Jong-un carried out drills practicing a simulated amphibious assault landing on the South Korean coast and countering of a sea-born assault launched by the enemy.
In his March 28 interview with TASS agency, North Korean Foreign Minister Lee Su Yong said that “in response to the US nuclear war hysteria we have practiced a full-fledged military response to a simulated pre-emptive strike, and we resolutely declare our readiness to make a pre-emptive nuclear strike.”
On March 29, a representative of the South Korean government stated that Korean People’s Army intensified the use of drones in the western section of the inter-Korean border, and that North Korea might be doing it to divert attention from other districts where it is preparing new provocations. At the same time, representative of South Korean Ministry of National Defense noted that North Korean drones do not violate the border and fly over their part of the Korean Peninsula. Overall, there was only one case of border violation registered on March 13.
On March 31, North Korea turned on jamming devices causing interruption in the operation of navigation system of mobile phones, cars, and other types of transportation in Seoul, Inchon, provinces of Gangwon-do and Gyeonggi-do. This action put to risk the operation of air and boat traffic affecting 110 air and sea crafts located in the area of interference. The base stations of some mobile phone operators also happened to be in the area of interference, but their protection systems successfully sustained jamming. Actually, as for this incident, even some South Korean experts believe that disabling of GPS was a side effect of jamming used to disrupt South Korean TV and radio programs broadcast in the frontier areas 10.
On April 1, North Korea launched an anti-aircraft missile that flew for about 100 km. At first, it was believed to be a ballistic rocket, but after an analysis of its travel path, this hypothesis was dismissed. On the same day, the ambassador of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea to the Russian Federation Kim Hyun-joon confirmed Pyongyang’s commitment to the pre-emptive nuclear strike strategy.
And if you use simple math, it would be clear that the number of missiles and anti-missiles fired during joint US-South Korea drills is approximately the same as the number of missiles fired by North Korea. The only difference is in the number of articles published by mass media. After all, any country has the right to conduct any sorts of drills in its territory and fire anything anywhere as long as its actions do not put at risk other states. And actions of North Korea do not differ dramatically from the actions of its southern neighbor in this respect.
Tension between the South and the North is not subsiding for yet another reason: some symbolic events will take place in the spring of 2016 in both hemispheres of the Korean Peninsula. North Korea is going to hold a convention of its Workers’ Party of Korea in May 2016. Naturally, the regime takes certain steps to bolster the image of North Korea as a “mighty power” unrelentingly defending its interests on the international scene. As for South Korea, its parliamentary election is due in April 2016. And it is quite natural that they use an anti-North Korean hysteria to “mobilize the nation” sending a message to its citizens that their security is in the hands of ultra conservatives. Although the division in the left bloc gives conservatives good chances to win, there still exists an internal factional struggle between radicals and more moderate supporters of Park Geun-hye.
Thus, most probably, the situation on the Korean Peninsula will start gradually improving by this summer, provided there are no new incidents adding oil to the fire.
Konstantin Asmolov, Ph.D, Leading research fellow of the Center for Korean Studies, Institute of Far Eastern Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.”
