The NATO media centre states that the exercise is based on a “fictitious training scenario” termed SOROTAN, developed by the Joint Warfare Centre in Norway and is commanded by German Army Major General Reinhard Wolski, commander of the Centre. They state that the objective is to “assess NATO’s ability to meet projected operational challenges through 2020. What these “projected operational challenges” are, is not stated but we can read the text and subtext of the battle scenario they are using and come to a definite conclusion. That scenario consists of “rising political instability, ethnic tension, and persisting socio-economic challenges in a certain country that are climaxed by a blatant invasion of one state’s territory by another and results in a UN mandated NATO-led response…in a region far from NATO’s home territory” a region they call Cerasia.
The fact that OTAN in French and backwards in English means NATO and that SOR becomes ROS, close to RUS, strongly indicates, along with the exercise scenario, that this exercise is aimed at Russia and the real setting is meant to be Ukraine.
A few weeks ago an American general stated that NATO can expect Russian “hybrid warfare” operations to take place in the Baltic, and that this was “inevitable.” Since Russia has no motive or interest to conduct such actions this means that we can expect false flag operations by NATO in the Baltic, including violent street demonstrations, destabilization, propaganda and terrorism all of which will be presented as operations conducted by Russia. We can expect similar actions in eastern Ukraine, which best fits the scenario being used in Trident Juncture.
Since these exercises are not defensive in nature but openly aggressive, as were a series of other NATO exercises conducted in Europe all spring and summer of this year, these exercises must be condemned by all the peoples of the world.
The UN Charter, Chapter VI, Article 33 states that,
“The parties to any dispute, the continuance of which is likely to endanger the maintenance of international peace and security, shall, first of all, seek a solution by negotiation, enquiry, mediation, conciliation, arbitration, judicial settlement, resort to regional agencies or arrangements, or other peaceful means of their own choice. The Security Council shall, when it deems necessary, call upon the parties to settle their dispute by such means.”
Article 39 states that,
“The Security Council shall determine the existence of any threat to the peace, breach of the peace, or act of aggression and shall make recommendations, or decide what measures shall be taken in accordance with Articles 41 and 42, to maintain or restore international peace and security.”
There can be no other conclusion but that Trident Juncture is a preparation for aggressive war and is therefore a threat to the peace, a breach of the peace and constitutes an act of aggression. Therefore, the non-NATO members of the Security Council have every right to bring this to the attention of the Security Council and the people of the world and demand that these war preparations be stopped.
The exercises are even a breach of the NATO treaty, Article I of which states that,
“The Parties undertake, as set forth in the Charter of the United Nations, to settle any international dispute in which they may be involved by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security and justice are not endangered, and to refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force in any manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations.”
Article 3 states that NATO can only act when its member states suffer an armed attack. But in the Trident Juncture scenario there is no armed attack on a NATO country and therefore under the NATO Treaty NATO cannot act.
Further, Article 7 States that,
“This Treaty does not affect, and shall not be interpreted as affecting in any way the rights and obligations under the Charter of the Parties which are members of the United Nations, or the primary responsibility of the Security Council for the maintenance of international peace and security.”
NATO Deputy Secretary General Alexander Vershbow said in relation to Trident Juncture that NATO is concerned about “Russia’s military build-up” from Kaliningrad through the Black Sea, Crimea, to Syria and Turkey.” In other words the NATO overlords are concerned that their aggressive moves in Ukraine, Syria and elsewhere, all directed ultimately at Russia, are being met with resistance and this the western military mafia cannot tolerate.
Just a few days after the Trident Juncture exercise began Russian planes began hitting ISIL targets in Syria. On October 7th the NATO mafia were completely surprised by the cruise missile strike launched from the Caspian Sea. A few days later the US aircraft carrier USS Roosevelt, which was supporting the claimed US air strikes on ISIL targets in Syria, left the Persian Gulf, claiming on its website that is mission was over and was a success. A poor cover story but for the first time in a long time, the movement of the Roosevelt out of range of Russian cruise missiles meant there was no American carrier task force stationed in the Gulf. No doubt the Joint Warfare Centre did not take this new scenario into account when planning this massive exercise and we can only hope it upset their plans.
Bur what does all this mean for the rest of us? It means escalating anxiety, fear, and insecurity and we seem helpless to do anything about it. But there is a ray of hope and it is coming from Italy. Finally, the moribund anti-war movement seems to be coming to life, and in a significant way.
On Saturday October 24th an anti-NATO demonstration was held in Naples organized by the “NO TO NATO” Movement in Italy comprised of dozens of Italian citizens, citizen groups, musicians, writers, artists, civil society groups, the Communist Party, and other communist formations, various anti-fascist committees, women’s organizations and anti-imperialist formations and intellectuals. Another anti-NATO demonstration follows on Monday October 26 in Rome.
I quote here the letter of Andros Kyprianou of the Progressive Party of Working People (AKEL) in Cyprus, to the No To NATO Committee, as I could not say it better,
“Dear friends,
I salute today’s initiative undertaken by the “No Guerra,” No NATO” Committee which is taking place at the same time as the NATO exercise “Trident Juncture” is underway. The holding of this huge exercise in essence is a provocative show of strength and an attempt to intimidate the Russian Federation and the rest of the world.
This represents another step towards the militarization of Europe. NATO is the driving force that is pushing for the continuous militarization of the world and international relations. Indeed, at the same time as the peoples in Europe are suffering from the economic crisis and the implementation of austerity policies, NATO is demanding from its members that they increase their military expenditure and armaments.
It is obvious that NATO’s aggressiveness has intensified dramatically, with incalculable dangers for peace and security, particularly in Europe and the Middle East. It is for this reason that this initiative in Rome is particularly important. ….. It is our firm belief that the peace-loving, anti-war movements must mobilize European societies so that a wall of resistance is built to NATO aggression and that this military alliance will eventually be dissolved once and for all.”
I wish to add my voice to his call for the support of the No To NATO Movement by the citizens of every NATO country, not just in Europe, but in Canada, the United States, and by the citizens of every country, everywhere, who will be the victims of any world war that results from NATO’s continued aggression against the peoples of the world.
Christopher Black is an international criminal lawyer based in Toronto, he is a member of the Law Society of Upper Canada and he is known for a number of high-profile cases involving human rights and war crimes, especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.
