In recent days, the Iraqi army has successfully executed a number of strikes against ISIS. Most importantly, Iraqi regular troops have managed to push the Sunni Islamists back from Baghdad, clearing the International Airport and western suburbs near the Abu Ghraib prison. In retaliation the Islamists carried out terrorist attacks in Baghdad that resulted in dozens of civilian deaths. Yet, it’s safe so say that the situation in Iraq has generally stabilized. The intense battles are reported in the Syrian city of Kobanim, near the borders of Iraq and Turkey. Ankara has finally allowed Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga to cross the Turkish border in order to help Syrian Kurds. Simultaneously, the US and coalition carry on with air strikes against the positions of the Islamic State’s militants with missiles and bombs, even though these strikes are not particularly effective. Some of the US airdrops that were intended for the defenders of Kobani even ended up in the hands of terrorists.
Pentagon Press Secretary Rear Adm. John Kirby stated that analysts at Central Command and at the Pentagon would be studying the video that was aired on national television, showing militants unpacking one of the US bundles which may serve as confirmation of this fact. In this video, a masked man dressed in camouflage examines the boxes on the ground with parachutes still attached to them. The boxes are filled with different kinds of ammunition, including grenades and mines. According to Kirby, the Islamists got their hands on the USAF small arms and ammunition supply. The Pentagon stated that they knew that a single bundle ended at the Islamic State territory, but assured journalists that it was subsequently destroyed by an air strike.” However, some experts are convinced that Washington did this on purpose, to strengthen ISIS units which may facilitate their efforts in repelling the Kurdish offensive. The White House is attempting to prolong the tension in the region, otherwise it will have no pretext to bomb Syria.
At the same time, the Iraqi regular troops can hardly be labeled as combat-capable. They are stuck in a state of continuous moral decay. The greatest efforts to repel ISIS militants are made by armed Shiite militias created by the former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in June to defend Baghdad from approaching Islamists. Moreover, reports are stating that these Shiite fighters are prepared to launch strikes against IS troops in a number of districts to the north and northeast of the capital in the provinces of Al-Anbar, Diyala, Salaheddin. Therefore, it is possible that Iraqi pro-government forces will be able to eliminate ISIS units in the central and northern Iraq single-handedly.
The most curious fact in this story is that all the prominent Shia leaders in the Middle East perceive the US “anti-terrorist” coalition as the main threat to Baghdad, not the IS militants themselves. It’s also worth mentioning that this very coalition was created after the military success of Shia militia units in mid-September that had managed to knock the Islamists out of two cities in northern Iraq, Amerli and Tal Afar. As a result, for the first time all pro-Iraqi military units, such as Badr Brigade, Asaib Ahl Al-Haq and Hezbollah, joined their efforts against a single enemy… At that time, they could even recapture Mosul as ISIS units were approaching the capital and the province of Al-Anbar, but the Iraqi government refused to initiate this operation for unknown reasons. Apparently, at that point in time Washington realized that the united Shia units had become the dominant force in Iraq yet again, and that they were capable of defeating ISIS, especially with Iran’s assistance. This fact accelerated US efforts to create a coalition, which included the Sunni monarchies of Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Hence the US coalition is created to deter Shiites, so it couldn’t care less about fighting ISIS. Once again, this demonstrates the prevalence of anti-Shia sentiments in Washington. And the pressure the United States is trying to apply to Iran during negotiations over its nuclear program can only serve as yet more proof. In addition, the coalition allows Washington to “directly control” the action of ISIS, for example, in preventing the Islamists from attacking the positions of the pro-Western and pro-Israeli Iraqi Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani. At the same time NATO countries began to supply him with large shipments of small arms. Hence the ISIS militants are only fighting Syrian Kurds which have not given up their support of Bashar Assad, leaving Barzani to witness the massacre.
It is becoming increasingly clear that ISIS and its offensive in Iraq and Syria is nothing more than a product of the United States and Israel, who strongly oppose the growing influence of the Shia in the region. Simultaneously, ISIS is used to initiate the collapse of Syria and Iraq, which will serve in the best interests of the US, the Jewish State and the Sunni monarchies of Arabia. Once the the Shiites are weakened in the Arab countries this will inevitably lead to a weakening of Iran’s sphere of influence in the Middle East, derailing the plan to create a “Shiite arc” as opposed to a “Sunni crescent” in the region. According to a number of sources, Riyadh is generously paying for the implementation of an “Islamic State project“. So one must agree with the experts, including Americans, that are confident that ISIS has been created to force Iran into submission. Saudi Arabia is also willing to cover the costs of the air strikes carried out by the United States and its allies. Moreover, these costs are partly forced on Iraq — since this state has an official account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on the basis of an agreement on joint defense signed by Nouri al-Maliki.
The Shiite leaders in Iraq fear that the US will deploy its troops in the region. So far, the Shiites are putting up with the existence of the US-Iraq military committee, which is formed by a number of Iraqi officials and several hundred American military advisers. It is possible that, if the United States is going to try to increase its military presence, the Shiite militia will start an armed revolt. Shiites do not want the re-occupation of Iraq.
Meanwhile, according to the secret agreements on defense between Iraq, the United States and Great Britain that were signed on September 11, 2011, Anglo-American troops can be sent to Iraq simply with the consent of Baghdad.
In any scenario, now the threat of the disintegration of Iraq has significantly decreased, although the federalization of the country into three enclaves – Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish — is still possible. Much will depend on how quickly the government in Baghdad is be able to restore its military might and deliver a decisive blow against ISIS.
Peter Lvov, Ph.D in political science, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.
