Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE decided to withdraw its ambassadors from Qatar on March 5. As reported by the SİA news agency and a number of Arabic TV channels, a joint statement issued by these countries reads: “Three countries have to start doing whatever they deem appropriate to protect their security and stability by withdrawing their ambassadors”. These countries accused Doha of failing to comply with an agreement on non-interference in the internal affairs of other members of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC member states: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar). The GCC members have signed a security agreement last November according to which they will provide no support to any party which is “aiming to threaten the security and stability of any GCC member”, including the political means of supporting those or through hostile media coverage. Three states that are recalling their ambassadors expressed hope that Qatar would take immediate steps to comply with the joint GCC security agreement in order to promote safety and protection of the people of the region.
The decision was taken on March 4 in Riyadh after a meeting of all the Foreign Ministers of the GCC member states. This step can be easily called unprecedented for an organization that has existed for over 30 years.
So far, sources in Doha believe in two versions. The first one states that Qatar took too independent an approach in the development of the new doctrine of defense and security of the GCC, that was influenced by the Saudi Arabia. According to this approach the main threat for Arabian monarchies comes from Iran, so there’s a growing need to put an end to the strengthening of the Shiite government in Iraq and to prevent the creation of the Tehran Baghdad -Damascus axis. Tamim while he was crown prince, oversaw the “development” of Qatar-Iran relations, so he visited Tehran regularly where he gained a reputation of being sympathetic to Iran. This version has the right to exist, given the fact that in the recent months, some Western states, primarily the United States, made countless attempts to normalize relations with Tehran, and Qatar here – a de facto protectorate of Washington.
The second one says that Qataris started to get on Saudis nerves with the persistent support to the forces in Syria that are unable to find a common language with radical units funded by Saudi Arabia. While politicians from around the globe were searching for ways of settling the Syrian crisis in Geneva, Doha started to deviate once again from the line imposed by Riyadh. Saudi Arabia could hardly be pleased by the fact that the young emir tried to turn the page in relations with Russia either. Those bilateral relationships have been in a steady decline since November 2011 when Emir Hamad issued an order to assault the Russian ambassador in an attempt to capture his valise. And once again Doha started promising Moscow some fantastic investment projects (although everybody understands that it’s a clear cut bluff, given the influence the U.S enjoys in Qatar). As for Saudi Arabia, where hostility to Russia is obvious, nobody is even trying to pretend that these political manoeuvres have not caused a massive confusion.
Although it is likely that the true reason behind this GCC diplomatic siege is purely economical. When it became obvious that the Qatari involvement in the Syrian conflict can make no real difference whatsoever, a change of Qatari emir was quick to follow, bringing along the total rearrangement of the state’s policy. Qatar has never been truly interested in the victory of an Islamist revolution in Syria, the only goal the former emir pursued was the pipeline that should have stretched from South Pars to Europe. Nevertheless there was an alternative project — a pipeline that should have gone across the Iranian soil and then again Syria to the Mediterranean Sea. When the policymakers in Doha realized that the never-ending war in Syria would lead them nowhere, local elites, relying on Saudi Arabia and the United States, took quite a tough decision of toppling the former Emir and replacing him with his son. But once in power the new emir began to play a different game.
Lately the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar held a meeting with his Iranian counterpart. During these talks, the Iranian foreign minister was forced to refute the idea of a possible alliance between Iran and Qatar, that until recently has been something totally unheard of. The heart of the conflict – the same gas pipeline project. Qatari analysts assumed that Iran is clearly winning in Syria, so it will be building its own pipeline soon. But it turns out so Iran is a little bit short on cash now, so Doha can provide the investments to bring this project to life, and when it’s finished Qatar will pump its own gas through the joint pipeline. But in this course of events Qatar is inevitably taking the side of Iran in the long-standing conflict between the Arabs and the Persians in the Persian Gulf .
It is noteworthy that Qatar itself , like Saudi Arabia, is ideologically a Salafi Wahhabi state, and one can hardly expect it to cooperate with a Shiite run country, but economic interests seem to have the upper hand in these matters. The old Qatari partners – Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates are extremely concerned about this story, which comes as no surprise.
The withdrawal of ambassadors is a clear sign that indicates that the Gulf monarchies have realized that Qatar is playing a game of its own. And it has gone so far in it that there’s no talks to be held, we witness a diplomatic break here and maybe the imminent toppling of the sitting emir. In any case – Tamim has received a ” black mark “.
Alexander Orlov, political scientist, expert in Oriental Studies, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook“.
