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No matter how Saudi Arabia and its Western allies try to turn the tide of the war in Syria, the situation remains largely under the control of Damascus. Troops loyal to Assad are not allowing insurgents and terrorists to achieve a breakthrough in the fighting. Moreover, the Syrian Army is slowly winning over many positions. Recently, control over the country’s main highway Damascus–Hama has been restored. However, Riyadh stubbornly continues to throw hundreds of millions of dollars into the furnace of war, to persuade major players in the Syrian conflict, primarily the United States and Russia, to change their position. Washington is pressured to insist on a change of regime, if the Geneva-2 Conference is still held, and Moscow to abandon support for Bashar al-Assad in exchange for guarantees that the new SAR Government will be friendly to Moscow. This was the purpose of the recent visit of the head of KSA Intelligence, Prince Bandar, to Russia, for the second time in the last six months.
In any case, the chances of a political solution to the crisis in Syria are more than minor, if they exist at all, at least in the foreseeable future. There are many reasons for such a pessimistic evaluation, not so much because of the situation in the “fronts” of hostilities, but due to the fact that war in Syria is actually, for a variety of reasons, beneficial for certain countries, forces and political figures.
After all, if we look closer at the Syrian conflict and analyse its causes, it becomes clear that in fact today not one, but two or three different conflicts are taking place in Syria, and they often intersect. Besides, it is necessary to ask the question – who, with whom and for what are people fighting in Syria? And then it turns out that there are too many internal and external members in the Syrian war, and they are too diverse.
Among them, of course, there are the Syrians, who are convinced that they are fighting against a dictatorship, and in their struggle against the regime of Bashar al-Assad they want to establish in the country some form of democracy. There are those who defected to the diametrically opposite direction – Islamic fundamentalism of the radical clerics. These include jihadists and terrorists from the Arab world, the Islamic countries, even Muslims from Europe and many North Caucasus militants who came to Syria to take part in the “jihad” for Sunni brothers, allegedly oppressed by “Sectarian Alawites”. On the opposite side of the battle, there are Shiite Iranians and Shiites – Lebanese from Hezbollah who want to help the Assad regime, considering the Alawites to be a branch of Shiism. Therefore, what is the essence of all this?
Those who are not versed in the complex nuances of the Middle East believe in the conspiracy theory, based on the fact that Syria was the only country in the region, which hindered the completion of the peace process in the Middle East. In addition, the U.S. accused SAR of supporting terrorism. After all, the headquarters of the Palestinian Islamist group “Hamas” is in Damascus. In addition, the headquarters of the People’s Front for the Liberation of Palestine, a radical group headed by Ahmed Jibril, is still in the Syrian capital. Further, they argue that the SAR was and remains the only Arab country that borders with Israel, being still in a state of war with that country. Lebanon is also in a state of war with Israel, but this is more due to pressure of Syria, and Hezbollah, rather than the foreign policy vector of Lebanon. As for the two remaining Arab countries – Egypt and Jordan – they have signed peace agreements with Israel. Those people shout loudly everywhere that Syria intervenes in relations with Lebanon and Palestine. Moreover, if not for the strong Jordanian intelligence, Syria would become involved in the Hashemite Kingdom. In addition, and which is more important – Damascus disappointed Saudi Arabia after Syrian intelligence became a suspect in the murder of Rafik Hariri, the former Lebanese prime minister and a close friend of the ruling family of Al Saud. Supposedly this is the real reason why Riyadh is trying so hard to overthrow Assad.
As for the West, according to these “analysts”, no one there would have been very upset if the Syrians were fully immersed in their own internal affairs, and they would not have time for being engaged in the support of terrorism, although this support has never been proven. Moreover, for the U.S. and Europe, it is supposedly beneficial that thousands of future terrorists from all over Europe and the North Caucasus, as well as from many countries of the Islamic world friendly to the West, are now pulled to Syria, where they fight against other jihadist groups, destroying each other and not paying attention to their fight against the “infidels in the West.” Indeed, over the past two years, in Syria more Islamists were killed by government troops and other Muslim factions than by Western intelligence agencies and armies during the past 50 years. In addition, while they are at war with each other, they will be too busy to organize terrorist attacks on the United States and Europe. Therefore, on the surface, everything looks quite logical in this theory, if not for a few “buts”.
First, Syria has not hampered the peace process between Egypt and Jordan with Israel, and was itself ready to sign a peace treaty with that country, if it would receive the Golan Heights in exchange. Second, the “Hamas” has long moved to Gaza, and Jibril’s PFLP plays almost no role in Palestinian affairs. Third, Damascus did not support any international terrorism. After all, these people were the subjects of Saudi Arabia, with the help of the Emir’s family in Qatar, who committed the September 11 attacks, and not Syrian citizens or SAR agents. Fourth, in terms of democracy, Syria was one of the most advanced Arab countries, especially when you compare it with the reactionary and conservative Arabian monarchies. Therefore, the war unleashed in the SAR is just the latest to bring to power the “Muslim Brotherhood” and their more radical jihadist allies. The West went along with them, being deceived with oil wealth of Saudi Arabia and Qatar gas supplies. And only at the end of this summer, it became clear that such a blind policy would lead to the fact that the entire Middle East will become a caliphate empire of Islamist radicals. Both in Washington and European capitals, officials began to think over what to do and how not to become accomplices to the Islamic radicals. Only a falsification, involving the use of chemical weapons, conducted by Prince Bandar, for some time exacerbated the aggressiveness of the United States toward Damascus, but then the Russian initiative to eliminate the chemical weapons stockpiles gave Obama an opportunity to save face, to soften the line on Syria, and even begin normalization of relations with Iran.
In this regard, very significant is the recent statement by former CIA director Michael Hayden that “victory of the Syrian authorities in the armed conflict with the opposition is the best scenario for the country itself, and for the entire region,” as AFP reported on Friday. (Michael Hayden headed the CIA from 2006 to 2009, before that, from 1999 to 2005, he led the U.S. National Security Agency.) This statement was made by Hayden in Washington at the annual conference on terrorism organized by the nonprofit research organization Jamestown Foundation, informed RIA Novosti
According to Hayden, none of the three possible scenarios provides for the victory of the rebels. The worst alternative to the victory of government forces, according to the retired head of U.S. intelligence, is the collapse of the country, which threatens to destabilize neighbouring countries – Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq. In addition, armed conflict in Syria could continue indefinitely – and Hayden considers this scenario undesirable.
Another interesting fact is that the words of former CIA director were sounded two weeks after Syrian rebels fired twice on Irish troops in the Golan Heights. However, media in England and Ireland did not dwell on this subject, not to put their governments in very awkward situations, because they obviously are not interested in initiating proceedings in the media and providing evidence of criminal activity of militants fighting against the Syrian army. Therefore, it is time to think about who is the real enemy of the West in Syria.
Another sad note here: according to the UN, the conflict in the SAR so far has led to more than 100,000 victims. So, let this terrible figure be on the conscience of those who started the Syrian conflict and continue to pour oil onto the fire. All this, as history bears evidence, in one form or another, will return to haunt the instigators of bloodshed in the SAR.
Alexander Orlov, political scientist and expert orientalist, exclusively for the New Eastern Outlook online magazine.
