Dialog between Pyongyang and Tokyo? Another failure!
Japan and North Korea do not currently have any diplomatic relations, but Tokyo periodically tries to gain political capital by attempting to establish a dialog with Pyongyang. The most successful such attempt occurred in 2002, when, in a meeting with Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, DPRK leader Kim Jong Il admitted that 13 Japanese citizens had been abducted by North Korea’s intelligence services…
“Freedom Shield” and Other Events of February-March 2024. Part One: Is The Border Under Attack?
On February 10, 2024, the Lunar New Year holiday, Yoon Suk-yeol visited the Second Marine Corps Division in Gimpo, inspected the Cheonmoo multiple rocket launcher system, and urged troops to be prepared for any North Korean provocations. “If the enemy provokes, you have to sternly and overwhelmingly respond under the principle of ‘act first, report later’ to completely crush the enemy’s will.”…
The latest report by South Korea’s Unification Ministry - a serious analysis or fake news?
It will soon be 10 years since the publication of South Korea’s review of the state of human rights in the DPRK, which, thanks to its uncritical treatment of sources, turned out to be “much ado about not very much”. 10 years later, on February 6, 2024, South Korea’s Ministry for Unification presented what it considered to be a serious report, Perceptions of the Current Socioeconomic Situation in the DPRK, based on the results of an analysis of surveys of 6,531 defectors who left the DPRK between 2013 and 2022…
On the January session of the Supreme People’s Assembly of the DPRK. Part Three. Continued management innovation
While preparing the material, the enlarged meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the WPK was held on January 23–24, 2024, where Kim Jong-un’s proposed strategy for the development of local industry began to take shape. The Politburo meeting lasted for two days, which is rather rare. The meeting structure suggests that there was significant conceptualization taking place. The composition of the observers suggests that it was a nationwide planning meeting. The meeting included “members of the Presidium of the Political Bureau of the WPK Central Committee, members, and alternate members of the Political Bureau…
On the January session of the National People’s Congress of North Korea. Part Two. ... and equally important topics
The 10th session of the Fourteenth National People’s Congress of the DPRK, is best known for its radical reversal of the policy on relations between North and South Korean. However, specialists may also find some of the other issues discussed during the session to be of interest. In addition to the foreign policy issues discussed earlier, in his speech, “On the Next Tasks for the Prosperity and Development of the Republic and the Improvement of the People’s Welfare” Kim Jong-un made…
Digest of Inter-Korean Tensions at the Turn of 2024
The author barely completed one digest, when events on the peninsula rapidly developed. The New Year vacations were not much different from work in terms of preparing materials for the New Eastern Outlook. On December 17, mere thirty minutes after launching a short-range missile towards the Sea of Japan, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) released a statement from the military department. The statement claimed that the results of the second meeting of the South Korea-US Nuclear Security Consultative Group constituted an open declaration of nuclear confrontation…
North Korea’s first missile launch in 2024
Building on the tensions of early 2024, North Korea began “missile season.” The KCNA reported that on the afternoon of January 14, DPRK’s General Administration of Rocket Science conducted a test launch of a medium-range solid-fuel ballistic missile with a hypersonic maneuverable guided warhead. The successful launch was aimed at “confirming the characteristics of the gliding and maneuvering flight of a hypersonic maneuverable guided warhead of medium-long range and the reliability of the new multi-stage super-powered solid rocket motors,” had no impact on the security…
The 9th Enlarged Plenum of 8th WPK Central Committee December 2023
From December 26 to 30, 2023, Pyongyang hosted the 9th Enlarged Plenum of 8th WPK Central Committee, which summarized the results of the past year and set plans for the future. While much of the country was celebrating the arrival of 2024, the author was analyzing the materials of the plenum, adhering to the principle of ‘how you meet the new year, so you spend it. There were many interesting findings. To begin with, the structure of the plenum has already become part of the tradition…
A Chronicle of Inter-Korean Tensions in the Forth Quarter of 2023. Part Two: Actions of the North
This is the second part of the digest on inter-Korean tensions, dedicated to the DPRK actions. See the previous article to learn what the United States and the Republic of Korea did during the same period. Early in the morning on September 2, 2023, “a missile launch exercise was conducted to simulate a tactical nuclear attack to warn enemies of an actual nuclear war danger.” The launch came two days after the US and the ROK completed their 11-day Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise…
A Chronicle of Inter-Korean Tensions in the Forth Quarter of 2023. Part One: Actions of the South
We would like to bring to your attention the next digest of “moving towards red lines” on the Korean Peninsula. Since the articles should be kept concise, the author has to divide this narrative into two parts: first, with the South, then, with the North in focus. On October 5, 2023, during hearings in the US Senate, a well-known American expert on the countries of the Korean Peninsula from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Victor Cha, proposed to develop and adopt a new policy providing for prevention measures to neutralize the DPRK missile threat…
Launch of a Satellite by North Korea Causes a New Turn in Escalating Tensions Part 5: It is Not Only About a South Korean Satellite
The final text in the series on the North Korean satellite launch will focus on the military and political response of “the southern side”, which had several aspects. The first aspect is the strengthening of the US strategic forces. An aircraft carrier group including the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson and the Los Angeles-class nuclear submarine Santa Fe (SSN-763) arrived in Busan before the launch and visited the Navy base on the Jeju-do island after it. It is alleged, that on October 23, in response to such actions, North Korea launched an unidentified ballistic…
North Korea launches a satellite, causing an escalation in tensions Part Three: Discussions about the satellite’s capabilities and the Russian connection
North Korea’s successful launch of a satellite on November 21 has led to another wave of speculation both about the satellite’s capabilities and about potential military-technological cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang. This is largely due to the syndrome noted more than once, in which anti-Pyongyang propaganda first comes up with certain clichés and then begins to believe in them. The DPRK is seen as an “Evil State” and thus incapable of real success. Any real achievements are therefore dismissed – “the new housing developments were built to distract the population from economic…