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Pakistan and India: Prospects and Challenges Part 2

Natalya Zamarayeva, June 08

5009Tension and military confrontation on the Line of Control continued through early 2014. Pakistani Generals cited the provocativeness of India’s statements on the cross-border skirmishes by Pakistanis, claiming that they are directed at destabilizing the situation. The situation was resolved through negotiation and confidence-building measures.

This gave the business community in both countries the opportunity to restart talks on a range of projects, in particular, the sale of electrical energy to Pakistan from New Delhi.  Businesses insisted on removing trade barriers, and once again suggested a non-discriminatory arrangement for bilateral trade. This arrangement, in their opinion, is a step towards granting India MFN status.

On the eve of the parliamentary elections in India, Nawaz Sharif repeatedly expressed his intention to settle all disputes with India, including the Kashmir issue, through peaceful dialog; at the same time, criticism of the government in New Delhi over supporting Baloch separatists has waned.

The BJP, leader in the Indian parliamentary race in May 2014, sent official invitations to the heads of SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) countries to take part in the official oath-taking ceremony for the 16th Prime Minister of the Republic of India, Narendra Modi. The Prime Minister of Pakistan was at the top of the list of invitees. May 26, 2014, Mian Nawaz Sharif flew to India.

The official invitation, given as a package, does not imply failure.  In Eastern diplomacy, every factor is important – the time, place, order, color, position, etc. Islamabad did not confirm the visit for two days. The thing is that in 2013, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh did not attend Sharif’s inauguration ceremony. At the time, the press released information that India wanted to first see and evaluate the work of his administration, as well as positive shifts in relations with India. The main opponent of Nawaz Sharif’s visit to India at the time was the leader of the main opposition party, BJP – Narendra Modi.

The Prime Minister has surrounded himself with advisors. Authoritatively and often unilaterally making decisions on many key domestic and foreign policy issues in 2013 and early 2014, Nawaz Sharif urgently needed the support of the opposition on this issue, and it did not refuse.  He feared accusations of bowing to India. But criticism has come from several conservative religious parties, Jamaat-ud-Dawa in particular.Hafiz Saeed, its leader, is a key figure in Islamabad’s peace talks with the banned Pakistan Taliban Movement. It is he who adheres to the rule of “eye for an eye” in relations with New Delhi, recalling the response to India’s nuclear tests of May 11, 1998.

A brief conversation with the Army Chief of Staff General R. Sharif confirmed the visit to India. As a gesture of goodwill to New Delhi, 151 Indian prisoners were released from Pakistani jails by Nawaz Sharif, including 59 fishermen. On the morning of May 26, 2014, they were transferred to Indian authorities at the Wagah/Attari border crossing. This is the first time in many years in which Pakistan has made the decision to release prisoners.  There are currently 521 Pakistani prisoners in India. A similar decision was made in Sri-Lanka, where 5 Indian citizens were freed.   New Delhi greeted the freeing of the fishermen as a diplomatic gesture before the inauguration.

In addition to information about gifts for New Delhi, the Pakistani press has written extensively about the successful implementation of a certain military agreement throughout late May.  In April 2014, a contract was signed with Jordan, and a month later the Pakistani Air Force received several F-16 fighter jets.This this allowed them to form the new squadron  № 19, and to accordingly increase the combat capabilities of the Pakistani Air Force. Army Chief of Staff General Raheel Sharif stated that the armed forces of Pakistan are capable of withstanding any possible foreign aggression.    The purchase of new fighters from Jordan would likely have been more discrete if the Pakistani media had not informed the people of the combat history of squadron № 19. Founded in 1958 at the PAF Mauripur Base, in 1965 is was involved in the armed conflict with India. The media gave special coverage of the air support for ground operations in the Wagah region, and the famous strike on the Indian Pathankot airfield.   In subsequent military conflicts between India and Pakistan, the squadron completed over 630 operational missions and destroyed 15 enemy aircraft. The Pakistan Foreign Ministry has repeatedly stated that it does not want an arms race, but at the same time it is mindful of defensive tasks.

Nawaz Sharif is the first Pakistani Prime Minister to participate in the inauguration ceremony of an Indian leader since independence in 1947, and was the first foreign leader to personally congratulate the new Prime Minister of the Republic of India after the swearing-in.  He met with the President of India and held brief talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.  The Prime Minister of Pakistan has proved to be an experienced politician, taking the initiative in his own hands.

During the visit, as later emphasized by the Foreign Ministry, Nawaz Sharif offered his roadmap for the near term development of relations for the two countries based on strategic calculations. He made economic recovery and development a priority, without which the country will not be able to combat poverty and unemployment, or protect the sovereignty of Pakistan.  This goal may be achieved by establishing peace in the region. The mechanism for this, in his opinion, is that the confrontation between Pakistan and India should be converted into meaningful cooperation.The starting point should be the Lahore Declaration, the implementation of which he was forced to halt in October 1999 (in October 1999 he was dismissed from the post of Prime Minister in a military coup). The Lahore Declaration of February 1999 calls for both governments:

to intensify their efforts to resolve all issues, including the issues of Jammu and Kashmir.  

to refrain from intervening and interfering in each other’s internal affairs.      

Neither side has neglected the fight against terrorism (the status of investigating the terror attacks in Mumbai, the explosion of the Samjhota Express).

According to the Prime Minister of Pakistan, both leaders have a reputation as having business-oriented policies, and Nawaz Sharif used his stay in India to persuade Indian businessmen to actively invest in Pakistan’s economy.

The personal meeting of the leaders of two nuclear powers, which have a history of three armed conflicts and years of unresolved territorial disputes, of course, turned a new page in the countries’ bilateral relations, where a billion and a half people live.  But who know knows what words they wrote on that page, remembering the Nawaz Sharif was already one of the authors of the Kargil crisis, which not only took lives, but froze Pakistani-Indian relations, as well as costing Nawaz Sharif himself his career.

Natalia Zamarayeva, PhD in History, Senior Research Fellow, Department of Pakistan at the Institute of Oriental Studies in the Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.