A South Korean opposition leader has publicly claimed that the government is preparing to impose martial law and then stage a coup d’état—accusations that have attracted a great deal of comment in the country. But how seriously should all this be taken?
The beginning of the scandal
Then, in a September 1 meeting with ruling People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon, opposition leader Lee Jae-myung claimed that the government planned to declare martial law in the country and arrest members of the National Assembly. The meeting was broadcast live, so rumors spread like wildfire.
The authorities and the ruling party reacted immediately and indignantly. “We are appalled that the leader of a major political party would spread fabricated rumors on live television,” government administration spokeswoman Jeong Hye-jeon said at a press conference on September 2, demanding that Lee Jae-myung provide evidence for his claim and suggesting that the opposition leader is spreading the rumors as part of a propaganda campaign aimed at securing the impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol. Ms. Joeong noted that if there is no evidence, the Democratic Party should be labeled the “party of fake news.”
The Democrats’ arguments
In addition to the classic “Yoon Suk-yeol is EVIL and capable of doing anything to undermine democracy” style rhetoric, the Democrats are pointing to a number of recent appointments. For example, Yoon appointed his former security chief Kim Yong-hyun as defense minister and Yeo In-hyung as head of the Defense Counterintelligence Command. And Kim, Yeo, and Yoon are all graduates of the same high school. A clear sign of corruption!
In addition, Yoon has recently often accused the opposition bloc of being “anti-state forces,” alleging that they want to plunge the country into chaos. There are no other supporting arguments, not even information from “anonymous sources.”
Memories of the “military conspiracy”
In early July 2018, South Korea’s main newspapers reported that a group of high-ranking military officials were preparing to declare martial law in the country and bring tanks, special forces, and paratroopers onto the streets to suppress demonstrations and prevent the ouster of Park Geun-hye, who most likely knew of the plotters’ plans and was prepared to shoot at the people.
The pro-Moon media made a lot of noise about the “coup plot,” but as it later turned out, the rumor was based on just one third of the available documents, and the full picture was very different. It turned out that the alleged coup preparations were contingency plans to ensure order in the event that Constitutional Court did NOT approve impeachment and decided that Park could stay, and that as a result disgruntled masses took to the streets.
Nevertheless, the media whipped up this hypothetical situation, treating it as if it was a real coup attempt, and, with emotions running high, President Moon took the opportunity to organize a purge of the Defense Ministry and military intelligence apparatus, which “turned into a pogrom.” However, the months-long investigation led by 37 prosecutors under Moon Jae-in’s administration proved nothing, and no charges in relation to the alleged coup were brought, let alone a trial.
Reaction of experts and media
Conservative media said that the Democratic Party must put an end to is trademark brand of fearmongering. In an editorial, the Yonhap News Agency states that Lee’s remarks “disgrace the level of people’s consciousness, the military’s determination to maintain political neutrality and the country’s heightened international stature.” The Agency suggests that by doing so, the Democrats want to create grounds for impeaching the president before the court makes its first ruling on the corruption charges against the opposition’s leader in October 2024, after which he could be sent to jail and/or be forced to end his career as a politician.
The reaction of Yoon-opposing conservatives, whose views are supported by the Korea Times, could best be expressed as follows: “the Democrats are probably lying, but they have the right to free speech, and you can’t rule out something like this, and therefore it’s worth threatening the government.” Or, alternatively, “The DPK has every right to scrutinize the president’s frequent personnel changes and the allegedly narrow pool of talent from which he chooses his appointees. It is understandable that a DPK leader facing the risk of a court case risks may feel the need to rally the party and its core supporters. However, even in Korea’s deeply polarized political landscape, the principles of political decency must be respected.”
In an editorial for the Korea Times, Eugene Lee, a professor at the Graduate School of Management at Seongyunkwan University, writes: “On one end, the idea sounded grotesque and hard to believe, but on the other, it brought a chill to my back—what if it was actually the case? … The likelihood of it being rather low, but not impossible—I would suggest: just don’t do it.” He then lists the reasons why, if the authorities indeed have such a plan, they should abandon it and not go against their own people.
Firstly, under the Constitution, the imposition of martial law would require a very serious threat to the stability of the country. Rocket tests or garbage balloon attacks are obviously insufficient cause. Secondly, he continues, the trampling of democracy would not be tolerated by the US. Thirdly, the people would not accept martial law silently and it would mean “bloodshed, the price for which eventually will be dear, not only to any hypothetical leader or anyone around him but also to all their relatives.”
Former commander of the Korean Special Forces and retired General Chun In-bum points out that the current rumors of martial law “are emerging against a backdrop of severe political polarization and public distrust,” and are “fueled by conspiracy theories, often spread on social media, that … reflect a deeper unease in the country’s political landscape caused by memories of past authoritarian rule and ongoing tensions in inter-Korean relations.”
According to Chun, rumors are rumors and the likelihood of a successful coup d’état or a declaration of martial law in modern South Korea remains low. South Korea “is now one of Asia’s most vibrant democracies, with strong institutions, an independent judiciary and a civil society that actively participates in political discourse.”
Historian Michael Breen notes that after news of the coup preparations, “nobody ran out to buy extra toilet paper and ramyeon.” The stock exchange remained stable, there were no statements by diplomats, and the general lack of panic indicates the attitude of the public and the rest of the world towards such claims. “The interactions between the ruling and opposition sides in Korea are of such an embarrassingly low quality that it is not worth paying attention to.”
The present author also believes that President Yoon, in spite of his hardline approach, realizes that there is no reason or opportunity for martial law. Two appointees are good, but if there is a coup plan, would the army masses follow their lead? Then, tanks in the streets would provoke mass protests, and the army is not ready to shoot at the people. In the end, any attempted coup would likely meet the fate of the 1991 “State Committee on the State of Emergency” in Russia, which brought together opponents of the President, and ended with a number of sacrificial victims and the complete defeat of the insurrectionists.
But the Democrats, or rather party Chairman Lee, needs to rock the boat because the first of the court hearings is just around the corner and the stakes are too high.
Konstantin Asmolov, Candidate of Historical Sciences, Leading research fellow at the Center for Korean Studies, part of the China and Modern Asia Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
