Africa is a continent of more than fifty countries that is now one of the main components of the “Global South”. Recently, Africa has increasingly become the focus of special attention by the major players in the current phase of the “Big World Game”.
TICAD ministerial meeting in Tokyo
In Japan, the Tokyo International Conference of African Development (TICAD) was the focus of a series of ministerial meetings in Yokohama on 24 and 25 August. TICAD was established in the early 1990s, but has been used intensively by Japan over the past decade as the question of influence on the continent has become more apparent.
Every three years, TICAD members meet alternately in an African country or on Japanese territory. The seventh such meeting will be held in Yokohama in August 2019, the next in Tunisia in July 2022, and the next at ministerial level has now begun again in Yokohama. The TICAD summit will be held here in a year’s time.
As a sign of the growing importance of this platform for all participants, this was the first time that a ministerial-level meeting ended with the adoption of a Joint Communiqué. Commentary in the Japanese press and the closing speech by Japanese Foreign Minister Yōko Kamikawa highlighted the special role of cooperation in agriculture, which could be severely affected by climate change. Japan intends to transfer its experience in agriculture, taking into account the achievements in the field of the most modern technologies.
It should be noted that TICAD is only one of the tools used by the Japanese leadership in recent years as part of its dramatic revival in Africa. First and foremost is the increasing frequency of visits to various countries by the contingents of relevant government ministers and the Prime Minister himself. We can confidently predict the continuation of the process of strengthening intergovernmental relations with those countries that are most “interesting” to Japan in a number of positions. And this will be the case with any future government of the country.
Just as one of the main motives for Japan’s growing activity in Africa, the name of which is “China”, is unlikely to disappear. It did not fail to provide another argument to the supporters of such views on the motivation of Japan’s activation in Africa.
Summary of another FOCAC summit in Beijing
In October 2000, the Chinese leadership established its Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC). Its purpose is to discuss the whole range of relations with the countries of the continent. The exception is the Kingdom of Eswatini, which maintains diplomatic relations with Taiwan. FOCAC plenary meetings are also held every three years, alternating between the People’s Republic of China and an African country. The previous one was held in October 2021 in Dakar, the capital of Senegal.
The last FOCAC meeting took place in Beijing from 4 to 6 September 2024 and was attended by leaders from the PRC and more than 50 African countries. The main event, among a number of specialised events, was a speech by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, the main points of which can be found here. On the eve of the event, the Global Times summarised various elements of the current state of the PRC’s complex relations with African countries. The same newspaper also presented “Key measures to support Africa by China in the next three years“.
It should be noted that the results of the 9th FOCAC meeting received the most positive assessment from its African participants, with a certain dose of negativity from China’s geopolitical opponents.
As in the case of Japan’s TICAD, the functioning of the FOCAC platform is not the only tool for spreading China’s influence in Africa. Almost the most important of these is the set of specific projects being implemented on the continent as part of the global Belt and Road Initiative programme. As evidence of the special importance Beijing attaches to developing relations with African countries, there is a well-established tradition of Wang Yi, the second most senior Chinese foreign policy official, touring some of these countries at the beginning of each year.
Some thoughts on the strategy of challengers to gain a foothold in Africa
All the major players in the current phase of the “Big World Game” are increasingly interested in developing relations with African countries. Take, for example, India, which is trying to become active on the continent in a certain cooperation with Japan. Russia has recently joined the contenders for influence in Africa, and it seems appropriate to make some general remarks about the strategy for success in this endeavour.
It should be based on an understanding of what is most important to potential African partners. The vast majority of their concerns are in the socio-economic sphere. Let us mention just one component, which has become increasingly urgent in recent months, and which has to do with the emergence in Africa of hotbeds of various kinds of dangerous diseases. At the beginning of September, for example, the World Health Organisation (WHO) added Mpox (known as monkeypox) to its list of dangerous diseases.
In these conditions, the idea of forming some kind of ‘anti-colonial South led by Russia’ can only be the product of a very unhealthy imagination, when the economic potential of the latter is far from being the most powerful. Military organisations of any kind in Africa are practically useless. In order to solve the critical and extremely complex problems of the countries of the “global South”, the overwhelming majority of them will accept assistance and cooperate in their own efforts with all external actors capable of doing so, without exception. This includes former colonisers with whom the Global South has had less than favourable relations in the past.
The recent action of one of its informal leaders, Brazil, which has developed mutually beneficial relations with all major players without explicitly favouring any of them, is noteworthy in this regard. At the end of July, the Brazilian government’s Amnesty Commission apologised to Japan for some of its actions during the Second World War in relation to Japanese immigrants.
If we are stepping on France’s extremely painful “spots” in Africa, it seems natural that they would retaliate in Ukraine. At the same time, the constant references to the “Napoleonic era” look ridiculous given the very different history of bilateral relations. If a certain group of Russian “interested parties” continues to settle scores with Germany, it is hard to expect today’s Germany to be impartial in the same conflict in Ukraine.
And in general, one should live in current realities, not in “history”, which is often interpreted in a very specific way. At least so as not to be like our ‘independent’ neighbours, who have gone completely mad over the same “historical” issue.
Russia’s success in developing relations with the “global South” will not be determined by nostalgia for the irrevocably past, nor by confrontation with the notorious “West” in the same “South”, but by its own rapid and comprehensive progress, especially in the economic sphere. Only if it has the necessary quantitative and qualitative economic potential can it be expected to succeed in regaining positions in the countries of the global South.
In the struggle for such positions, the two players identified here, i.e. China and Japan, already possess such potential.
Vladimir Terekhov, an expert on the problems of the Asia-Pacific region, especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
