The helicopter crash that resulted in the death of the eighth President of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, and the early elections of the ninth President, which resulted in the unexpected victory of the only reform-oriented candidate, Masoud Pezeshkian, has changed the political landscape in the country.
Who are you, Dr. Pezeshkian?
The political regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran demonstrated its characteristic approach to elections during the registration and elimination of candidates. Of the six candidates, Masoud Pezeshkian was the only one nominated by a (relatively) pro-reform group, and it was he who, in a closely-fought contest, was successful in both rounds of voting, (June 28 and July 5), in the end winning by a small margin, with 53.6% of the votes.
Many experts, especially from outside Iran, associate the increased voter turnout (particularly in the second round of voting, when it reached 49.8%) with the fact that Masoud Pezeshkian was a liberal candidate who during the election campaign had openly proposed acceptable changes in the internal political life of the country in order to rein in the despotism of the regime, including in relation to human rights, and the interests of national minorities. The real demand for such changes in modern Iranian society determined the success of the reformist candidate.
It is also worth noting Masoud Pezeshkian’s ethnic origin. He comes from Kurdish-populated Mehabad (in West Azerbaijan Province, northwest Iran) and has Azerbaijani and Kurdish roots. It should be remembered that Iran is a multinational country, historically home to a number of different ethnic groups and faiths. For thousands of years, the traditions of the dominant Persian people have created the necessary conditions for coexistence and tolerance.
It is unlikely that President Pezeshkian’s ethnic roots will be a decisive factor in his domestic and foreign policy. In the political system of modern Iran, the head of state is not the President, but the supreme leader—the Rahbar, in whom political power and responsibility for determining policies are concentrated. The President cannot single out one ethnic group and ignore the interests of other peoples in the country.
Masoud Pezeshkian’s professional and political biography has been closely connected with the districts of Tabriz, Osku and Azarishahir. His progression through the ranks of the Ministry of Health to the level of minister, and his promotion within the Majlis to the post of deputy speaker occurred during the tenure of two reformist Presidents, Mohammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani. The character of Masoud Pezeshkian’s political career to date will largely determine the nature of his political activities as President of Iran, and it is likely that this will be marked by reforms in Tehran’s domestic policies and balanced approaches in its foreign policy.
In particular, he may propose reforms in the field of the cultural rights of Azerbaijanis, Baluchis and Kurds (such as their right to education in their native language, to the protection of their cultures, and the development of the media in these languages).
The reformist President will support initiatives to improve Iranian-Azerbaijani relations and the implementation of the Russian North-South international transport corridor project through Azerbaijan to the Persian Gulf. The Azerbaijani Embassy has already resumed its work in Tehran. Diplomacy with the West (mainly the USA and the EU) on such issues as lifting the sanction’s regime, regulating Iran’s nuclear program and bringing its natural resources to the European market will also be important for Iran.
Is Pezeshkian a protégé of Khamenei?
Meanwhile, press and social media commentators have suggested another reason for Masoud Pezeshkian’s political success—namely the support of Rahbar Ali Khamenei. Simply put, Masoud Pezeshkian, like the other five candidates selected from a longlist of 80 registered applicants, would not have been approved by the Council of Guardians [of the Constitution] without the personal backing of the Rahbar himself.
Iranian political expert Khayal Muazzin, who is considered close to the IRGC, assessing the results of the early elections of the ninth President of Iran, believes that Masoud Pezeshkian’s presumed main competitor, the conservative Saeed Jalili, lost votes because he did not have a high-quality election program. What makes the reformer’s program so strikingly different? According to Khayal Muazzin, Masoud Pezeshkian’s victory was a consequence of the course adopted by Rahbar Ali Khamenei, who is hoping that he will improve (i.e. moderate) the civilizational and democratic image of Iran in the international arena (particularly in relations with the USA and the EU), and thus prevent Iran from being drawn into a large-scale regional war, especially on its own territory.
Muazzin argues that political choice will bear fruit within the first two years of Pezeshkian’s term, but this is just speculation, as it is impossible to evaluate his performance in advance. It is also true that the United States does not want to follow the lead of its ally Benjamin Netanyahu and get drawn into a major war with Iran. That became clear following the high profile and large-scale attack by Iranian drones and missiles on Israeli military targets in April this year. The door is therefore open for Iran and the United States to conduct confidential negotiations on reforms in exchange for a reduction of sanctions pressure and the introduction of Iranian energy resources on the European market. In turn, The Guardian believes that the reformist Masoud Pezeshkian will strive to improve relations with the United States.
Those observers focusing on the “Azerbaijani factor” in Iranian politics are actively promoting this version and do not even rule out the possibility that the Republic of Azerbaijan’s regional leadership in the South Caucasus may be further strengthened. In particular, opponents of Persian statehood are propagating the view that the USA, the UK and Israel have an interest in seeing modern Iran split up into 3-4 ethnic components (Persian, Azerbaijani, Kurdish and Baloch-dominated regions), which would extend the influence of the Republic of Azerbaijan into the northwestern provinces of Iran (Iranian Azerbaijan). Such a political turning point could lead to the transformation of the regime in Iran and a new anti-theocratic revolution led by the pro-reform Masoud Pezeshkian.
There is no doubt that in the depths of the intelligence services of these countries various subversive anti-Iranian projects are being discussed. However, given Iran’s economic, military and resource achievements and capabilities, it is unlikely that any such project to dismantle the Iranian state from within could succeed.
The general shape of Pezeshkian’s foreign policy
Recently, the Tehran Times published an article by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, in which he outlined his proposed foreign policy. The main principle outlined in the article is that relations with all neighbors and global powers should be balanced while ensuring Iran’s interests are protected.
Tehran identifies Russia and China among its important strategic allies, and advocates an ongoing cooperation with the BRICS, SCO and EAEU member states, as well as strengthening relations with all neighbors, without allowing any of them to dominate. Iran continues to condemn Israel’s apartheid policy towards Palestine, demands a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, supports the Hezbollah movement and intends to sign a strategic partnership agreement with Russia for 20 years.
Iran invites Europe to enter into a constructive dialogue and restore cooperation in the field of economics, technology, energy security, transit routes, environment protection, the fight against terrorism, migration crises and other areas.
Iran’s President also addressed a new message to the United States: “I wish to emphasize that Iran’s defense doctrine does not include nuclear weapons and urge the United States to learn from past miscalculations and adjust its policy accordingly.”
In other words, if Iran and the United States can reach a common understanding on the nuclear issue, then it will be important to remove restrictions on global trade. Of course, there is often a big gulf between declarations of intentions and what happens in reality. Nevertheless, there is now a real chance that Iran will be able to contribute to the strengthening of regional and global security.
Alexander Svarants – Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”