On June 28, 2024, Mongolia held elections to the State Great Khural, the country’s parliament. Due to the special political system in Mongolia, which is a de facto mixed republic with broad parliamentary powers, parliamentary elections are perhaps the key domestic political event in the country. They determine the composition of the Cabinet of Ministers and the real balance of power in the political arena.
Unique elections
This year’s electoral process is unique in the history of the Mongolian state for a number of reasons:
– 126 deputies were elected to the Khural instead of the traditional 76;
– Electoral districts were formed for the first time, mainly covering either several regions of the country or one of the districts of the capital;
– For the first time since 2012, elections were held according to a mixed electoral system: 78 seats were distributed among 13 electoral districts and 48 more among party lists;
– Mongolian citizens abroad also got the possibility to vote.
Results
Naturally, the election results themselves are of considerable interest. The ruling party, People’s Party, won 68 seats (50 by districts and 18 by lists), which allowed it to secure 54% of the votes in the Khural. The Democratic Party – historically the main competitor of the ‘narodniks’ – came in second, securing 33.3% (26 district mandates and 16 from the lists). In third place was the young HUN party, which showed the best result in its history (8 seats or 6.3%). Two other small parties, namely the Green Party and the National Coalition, each claimed 4 seats. Thus, for the first time in the history of Mongolia, five parties and groupings entered parliament at once. This is largely due to the unprecedentedly low threshold set by introducing a mixed system and increasing the number of deputies almost twofold.
Elections as an indication of leading politicians’ ratings
Due to the peculiarities of Mongolia’s political system, which provides for one person simultaneously holding the offices of deputy and minister, the 2024 elections also became an indicator of the level of public support for a number of representatives of the current Cabinet of Ministers, who ran in certain electoral districts. Results in favour of the Minister of Transport and Road Development S. Byambatsogt (first place in the district) were observed in certain areas of the country. The same can be said for the Minister of Digital Development and Communications N. O. Uchral (the first place in the district by a significant margin), as well as Foreign Minister B. Battsetseg (the third place in his district, which traditionally supports representatives of the opposition Democratic Party) and First Deputy Prime Minister S. Amarsaikhan (also the first place in the district). The landslide victory of Prime Minister L. Oyun-Erdene in his constituency is also noteworthy. At the same time, voters’ support for the current speaker of the Khural, G. Zandanshatar, who only came in 10th place and did not enter Parliament following the results of the 2024 elections, frankly turned out to be weak.
A strange victory: the National Party
Despite the obvious victory of the Mongolian National Party (MNP) in the elections, the party’s standing has deteriorated significantly according to results; it has lost its constitutional majority maintained since 2016 (67%+ seats in the Khural, giving the right to approve important laws and amendments to the basic law of the country). The concern of the narodniks is also partly because of the notable success achieved by their main opponent (Democratic Party), which now controls a third of the parliament instead of the previous 1/7. They were successful even despite the ambiguous decision of the Constitutional Court of Mongolia on the issue of leadership within the party, when the post of chairman was assigned to a less popular candidate because of another party split. The results of party lists votes are also alarming for the narodniks; the gap between the MNP and the Democratic Party (DP), which had been significant in 2016 and 2020, now stands at a disappointing ratio of 35% to 30%.
This all suggests that the trend towards decreasing levels of trust in the People’s Party and individual politicians from its ranks, indicated in leading opinion polls back in 2023, remains relevant (even despite the generally successful handling of the major corruption scandal surrounding coal exports at the end of 2022, as well as good macroeconomic indicators for 2023). Uncertainty about the relative majority of the MNP, which allows the adoption of most laws, remains; in the presence of increasingly opposing factions and groups within the party itself, the 54% of seats obtained (compared with 70+% previously) significantly limit the ability of any of them to promote their interests in parliament. This situation is further complicated by the recent reunification of the narodniks. The wing separated from the narodniks in the early 2010s took the historical name of the party (MAHN) and was an independent political force for an entire decade.
Smaller parties and a bit of maths
Against the background of declining unity within the largest and most popular party in the country, as well as the traditional disunity in the ranks of the Democratic Party, the three ‘junior’ parties that made it to the Khural may actually be quote significant. Despite the fact that all of them together hold less than 13% of the seats in parliament, in certain circumstances the position of each of those parties can have a notable impact on the decisions of the supreme legislative body. On the other hand, even their consolidated support may be insufficient when one of the two dominant parties promotes certain amendments to the constitution or when overcoming the presidential ‘veto’, because together with the entire composition of the largest faction in Parliament up to 67% of the votes will still be three tenths of a percent short. The same applies to the hypothetical combination of small parties with the ‘democrats’ for the adoption of a particular law: 33.3 + 12.7% still will not give them a relative majority. Thus, small parties will only be able to influence the Khural if disagreements within the MNP or DP deepen. There is precedent for this; for example, in the history of parliamentarism in modern Mongolia, there was a case when the resignation of the prime minister from the dominant faction was the result of a consolidated vote of the opposition, combined with the support of their decision by a significant proportion of representatives of the ruling party.
Conclusions
Thus, the parliamentary elections of 2024 demonstrated an intensification of competition in Mongolian political life. The will of the Mongolian people, expressed by the votes of more than 2.2 million voters, this time leaves international analysts much more room to make prognoses as to the future of a young but ambitious democracy.
Bair Danzanov, independent expert on Central Asia and Mongolia, exclusively for the internet magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
