On February 5, 2024, Kazakhstan’s government was dismissed, and Deputy Prime Minister Roman Sklyar was named as acting Prime Minister. After the president has considered the candidacy of Oljas Bektenov nominated by the ruling party for the post of prime minister, the process of forming a new cabinet will be launched.
This political development is not entirely unexpected – only recently, in September 2023, there was a reshuffle in the Kazakh government, in which the ban on a single person occupying two positions in the cabinet was enforced, and ten new ministers were appointed and new ministries founded. In particular, the Ministry dedicated to highway and transportation development was re-established. And before that, following the political unrest in January 2022, there were other significant changes to Kazakhstan’s government of the republic – it was then that Alikhan Smailov, the Prime Minister who resigned on February 5, took office.
Moreover, in 2022-2024, Kazakhstan’s President repeatedly spoke about plans for various major political transformations, and these government reshuffles may be connected to this process. During the Astana international forum, held in June 2023, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev made an announcement to foreign investors about a proposed “reset of the political and economic system” in the Republic. And in his first interview of 2024, shortly after the end of the New Year holidays, he told journalists that “Kazakhstan has completed its main political reforms” and that it was time to “lay the foundation for the next five-year cycle of the country’s development and its transition to a new economic model.” He also talked about the imminent start of “cardinal reforms” in the Republic in a meeting with Italian businessmen during a visit to Italy in January 2024.
Of course, these announcements were not just about a possible dissolution of the government, but related to changes on a far greater scale – the real political and economic transformations which the country’s leadership began to implement after the headline-grabbing events of January 2022. In general, in March 2022, Kazakhstan embarked on a major constitutional reform, the draft of which was approved by its citizens in a national referendum held in June 2022 (77% of voters supported the draft).
In 2023, under the new rules, elections of deputies to the Majilis (the lower chamber of the national Parliament) and maslikhats (local Parliaments) at all levels were held. Just like the recent cabinet resignation, these elections were unscheduled. The elections held in March 2023 were thus conducted under a mixed electoral system. As a result of the reforms of 2022-2023, the powers of the legislative bodies have been significantly expanded, in sharp contrast to the long-standing presidential republic system inherited from Nursultan Nazarbayev, the country’s first leader. Parliament’s growing authority is a long term change, which implies greater cabinet accountability to parliament and possibly a greater role played by the latter body in the appointment of cabinet ministers. Moreover, the composition of the government that was dissolved on February 5, 2024 was much more homogenous – in terms of its political makeup – that the most recent Majilis, which, due to the introduction of a mixed electoral system, included representatives of an unprecedentedly large number of parties.
One of the reasons for the dismissal may be as part of a long-term policy to raise a new generation of leaders, who will have to take the helm in a reformed political and economic system. A large proportion of the dismissed cabinet members – including the former Prime Minister, his deputy, and a number of ministers – had won their seats under Kazakhstan’s previous regime, i.e. before 2019, when Kassym-Jomart Tokayev came to power. This conclusion is supported by the nomination as Prime Minister, on February 6, 2024, of Oljas Bektenov who, in addition to his reputation as an “honest” public official, is distinguished by the fact that he did not occupy any leading positions in Kazakhstan’s political system until 2019, and thus is a representative of a new generation of politicians.
But it would be a mistake to overlook more straightforward explanations – for example, in 2023 the Kazakh media frequently speculated about the possible resignation, if not of the entire cabinet, then at least of its head. However, it is more likely that while these factors may have contributed to the current situation, they are not the main reason.
In short, the unexpected dismissal of Kazakhstan’s government on February 5, 2024 should not be seen as an emergency or collapse of confidence in the cabinet, but as part of a gradual process, namely the renewal of the country’s political system, its transition to openness, representational government and the rule of law. As part of this process, the President is making use of the considerable political powers vested in him under Kazakh law to drive reform and appoint a new generation of politicians, with the support of the population, as confirmed by the results of national referendums. But, as is typical for this kind of political transformation, the transition to a system in which the legislative and judicial branches of government play a greater role is being accomplished through high-handed measures such as the dissolution of the lower house of parliament and the government.
Boris Kushkhov, the Department for Korea and Mongolia at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.”