The unstable situation in Afghanistan, the aftermath of the January events in Kazakhstan and the armed conflicts between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan make the Central Asian region prone to risks of destabilization. And some of the most vulnerable states in Central Asia (CA) in terms of instability today are Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which is greatly exacerbated by their limited state budgets and economies.
Whereas the long-simmering conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan previously concerned mainly the residents of the border regions of the two countries, it has recently become a serious destabilizing factor for the entire post-Soviet space, threatening in particular the unity of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). An example of this is the cancellation of the CSTO Unbreakable Brotherhood exercise in Kyrgyzstan, and the Rubezh-2022 maneuvers that started in Tajikistan on October 17 were already held without Kyrgyz military personnel. Moreover, the Kyrgyz authorities did not even conceal the reason for this, pointing to “contradictions with the neighbors.”
The recent heating up of armed clashes and contradictions between CSTO allies was at the center of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s discussions in early October in Astana at a series of events with representatives of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In particular, during a trilateral meeting with Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov and Tajik President Emomali Rahmon. The CSTO also got involved in resolving the situation between the two members, including during a visit to Tajikistan by CSTO Secretary General Stanislav Zas.
Although the current phase of the cross-border armed conflict between the two Central Asian states has been extinguished to some extent as a result of the measures taken, still the possibility of another outbreak cannot be completely ruled out. Especially against the backdrop of ongoing attempts by the US to destabilize the situation as part of its provocative policy in the Central Asian region, as well as the recent tendency, noted by a number of media outlets, of both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to strengthen their armed forces. And this strengthening is occurring despite the obvious financial problems of these countries, which of course affects the implementation of social programs for the populations of both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan very negatively and could be another source of instability. Nevertheless, these countries are finding ways to further equip and strengthen their armed forces not only with their own resources, but also through military and diplomatic efforts and through military and technical cooperation with partners.
In this context, it should be recalled that Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan share a border of more than 900 kilometers, half of which is not officially demarcated and many sections lack border markers, which is very often the cause of border conflicts.
Tajikistan’s population is almost 2.9 million more than that of Kyrgyzstan, which has almost 6 million. Tajikistan spends nearly $80 million on defense, compared to Kyrgyzstan’s $120 million military budget. The Tajik Ministry of Defense has two thousand fewer troops than Kyrgyzstan, which has 11,000. However, according to some publications in the national media, the total number of troops in Tajikistan, including those of the Ministry of Defense, National Guard, Interior Troops and paramilitary units of the Ministry of Emergencies may be as high as 16,000 troops.
By this analogy, the total number of all troops in Kyrgyzstan could reach up to about 20,000. Its main backbone is ground forces, divided operationally and tactically into a “northern” and a “southern” troop grouping.
Regarding the technical equipment of the armed forces, it should be noted that Kyrgyzstan surpasses Tajikistan in the number of artillery pieces and is roughly comparable in the number of armored vehicles, although Tajikistan has a numerical superiority in the other types of weaponry. Both countries are fairly weak in military aviation.
The US is actively trying to exploit these circumstances to strengthen its position in Tajikistan through increased military and technical cooperation. Thus, the issue of transferring to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan 46 military planes and helicopters redirected to the Central Asian republics by pilots of the Afghan Air Force after the capture of Kabul by the Taliban (banned in Russia) a year ago began to be discussed during the visit of General Michael Erik Kurilla, Commander of the US Central Command, to Dushanbe in the summer. Tajikistan recently conducted a 20-day field training exercises with US participation. As relations with US partners develop, Tajikistan’s Armed Forces have recently markedly upgraded their light vehicle fleet, special equipment, and communications equipment, receiving millions of dollars worth of military equipment. It should also be noted that of all Central Asian states, it is Tajikistan that cooperates the most with the US on counterterrorism, as well as border security and military training.
Tajikistan’s military and political leadership, based on current threats and challenges, replenishes ammunition and armaments from suppliers such as Russia, Bulgaria, China, Iran and the United States, with some supplies and ammunition coming from Romania, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Turkey. Given Tajikistan’s indirect involvement in the civil war in neighboring Afghanistan, which is not officially reported, it can be assumed, according to some media reports, that Dushanbe supplies some military materiel to the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan led by Ahmad Massoud.
At an October 18-19 international conference in Dushanbe on International and Regional Co-operation in Border Security and Border Control to Combat Terrorism and Prevent Terrorist Movement, Tajik First Deputy Commander of the Border Troops Nasimjon Rajabzoda requested from the international community more modern weapons, including drones. He justified this request by the fact that without this equipment it is impossible to control the country’s borders, including some mountainous areas bordering Afghanistan.
However, despite the existence of a number of arms importing partners, Russia provides the bulk of all supplies to both countries. This explains the predominance of Soviet or Russian military equipment in these countries.
As for the people on both sides of the border, they hope that the border disputes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which have been an issue of contention for more than 30 years, can be resolved with the help of Russia and the CSTO. Both countries are already tired of this conflict, except perhaps those who use it for geopolitical games and make dirty money from the instability.
Valery Kulikov, political expert, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.”
