There are good reasons to start another “Chronicles of the Taiwan Issue” with the noteworthy recent events on the island itself and turn first of all to the results of the survey on the generalized topic of the distribution of Taiwanese sympathies towards the PRC, the US and Japan. That is, to those three major world powers that are (to varying degrees and in different ways, but nevertheless) most visibly involved in the issue.
It should be explained in advance who conducted the survey in January this year. This topic was of interest to the so-called Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association (JTEA). In fact, the institution serves as the Japanese Embassy on the island, based in an office in Taipei. In terms of size and appearance, the building it occupies is not very different from, for example, the buildings of the Japanese Embassy in Moscow. This is despite the fact that Japan does not formally maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
By the way, the de facto US embassy is located under another euphemism (American Institute in Taiwan) in the same Taipei (in an even more modern building). It also does not formally maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
The above caveat should probably be taken into account when we look at the results of the survey mentioned above. It also remains unclear whether JTEA conducted it itself, or whether it hired some external specialized agency to do so, which acted solely under its own name. It would be equally interesting to know which questions, addressed to 1068 (“representative”) Taiwanese, revealed these “sympathies” (“with an accuracy of 3%”).
So, the following results were obtained: 60% sympathize with Japan, 7% with the PRC and 6% with the USA. For those interested in the issue for the first time, the figures are likely to be staggering. But the same JTEA presented a similar picture back in 2019, and even then experts analyzed the reasons for the phenomenon of Taiwanese special sympathy for Japan. The author was prompted to address this topic by the death of Li Teng-hui, i.e. one of the most notable politicians of modern Taiwan, in July 2020.
Among the several reasons mentioned, it is worth mentioning the extremely harsh policies towards the local population pursued during the 30 post-war years by Chiang Kai-shek-led Kuomintang, that is, in the eyes of the Taiwanese, “newcomers from the mainland.” They looked far worse in those same eyes than the “Japanese colonizers.”
Today, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, in its current struggle with the current successor to the former Kuomintang, is already making intensive use of the Taiwanese version of the propaganda campaign that has been going on in Russia for over 30 years (also with understandable political purposes) on the theme of “Stalinist repressions.”
By the way, it would be interesting to hear the views of Korean professionals on the (very topical) reasons for the current difficulties in the Republic of Korea’s relations with Japan, for example. Both Korea and Taiwan were colonies of Japan during the same period. For a time, Korea was governed by the Japanese who were quite positive about it. Why are there such stark differences in how Koreans and Taiwanese view Japan today? Are Koreans just victims of ongoing domestic political manipulation?
As the results of the survey under discussion show, Taiwanese are not very sympathetic (to put it mildly) to Mainland. It is also due to several reasons, the most important of which today seems to be its leadership’s recent demonstration of its willingness to force the love of mother country on the Taiwanese people. And no one likes that.
But why there is no (not hot, but any) love for the now main “savior” (i.e. the US) from the “harassment” of the latter remains unclear. Here you go then, working for “a flourishing democracy trampled on by external authoritarian forces.”
By the way, wouldn’t it end up with something similar to the results of a poll in Taiwan if it was conducted in Ukraine with a question about sympathies for the US, EU and Russia, for example? That is, won’t the current “aggressor” actually turn out to be the liberator of Ukrainians and Russians from the power of the next Mazepians. Although liberation is going hard, with mistakes, at serious cost, and with dubious propaganda accompaniment. However, the real political process does not always proceed in the way it was originally “prescribed” by someone else. Including by the notorious “backstage.”
Various aspects of the Ukrainian conflict are being exploited by both Taiwan’s own leadership and its now main external advocate. Apparently, the Taiwanese were impressed by the videos of Ukrainian women prancing up and down stairwells with wooden assault rifles in their hands. Therefore, among the various practical conclusions from the conflict that are proposed for use in improving the island’s defense capabilities is the involvement of Taiwanese women in the conflict.
There is a growing engagement in the (now almost unified) “Ukrainian-Taiwanese” issue by American politicians, both active and retired. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who had barely returned from a trip to Taiwan during which he made particularly provocative statements (in particular, about granting full statehood to the island), accused the current US democratic administration of being “behind” in a Fox News interview a week later. He implied all that preceded the conflict in Ukraine, the current development of which, in his view, would only “embolden” the Chinese leadership to take possible action towards Taiwan.
In general, Mike Pompeo’s recent public activity on particularly topical issues of world politics is in line with speculation that he may run for the US presidency in the next general election.
Activity in the Taiwan issue by the current US branches of government is developing without any interruption. Congress remains particularly prominent in this. On March 12, Assistant Secretary of Defense for “Strategy, Plans, and Capabilities” Mara Karlin addressed the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the defense aspects of the issue. During the speech, there was something complicated about the “asymmetric” methods of the Ukrainians fighting the Russian aggressor. These methods are recommended for use by the Taiwanese in their fight against the Chinese aggressor.
Congress remains the source of other anti-Chinese nasty tricks that can hardly be labelled “petty” anymore. For example, the US administration’s budget approval process for 2022 specifically stipulates a prohibition on designating Taiwan as part of the PRC in all documents that concern Washington’s relations with Beijing. Of course, this provoked a sharp negative reaction in the latter.
For example, Japan is developing its relations with Taiwan without excessive publicity, but in a sustained and purposeful manner. In other words, the employees based in the Japanese office in Taipei mentioned above clearly do not get their yen for nothing.
Once again, some of the Eastern European “Tabaquis” have also asserted themselves. Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry said an “inter-ministerial” delegation from the island will travel to Slovakia, Lithuania and the Czech Republic at the end of March.
Francis Fukuyama reminded everyone of his existence at a video conference in Taipei at the end of February. This time he was not shy about proving himself as a military expert on the issue of improving Taiwan’s defensive capabilities in general and countering enemy aviation in particular. Some inferences have been made about the quality of the use of the Russian air force during the conflict in Ukraine. That is, all the stale political junk seems to flock to the “Ukrainian-Taiwanese” issue.
Meanwhile, Premier Li Keqiang reiterated China’s unchanged position on both Taiwan’s status and possible solutions to the related problem during a press conference on March 11 at the conclusion of the country’s regular parliamentary session.
To conclude another Taiwan chronicle, it is worth reiterating the growing importance (including on Taiwanese issues) of the state and prospects of relations between Japan and the PRC, which are among the main players in the Indo-Pacific region.
Vladimir Terekhov, expert on the issues of the Asia-Pacific region, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.
