The process began with Iraq, where the United States had to leave after spending 2 trillion dollars on the war in this country and bringing to power a pro-Iran Government. Now the expected withdrawal of their troops from Afghanistan will reduce greatly U.S.. military and political presence in the region. And an obvious confusion of Obama Administration in the face of anti-Islamic “counterrevolution” in Egypt only reinforces this point. Of course, we can find analysts’ speculations that Washington no longer needs Middle East due to “oil shale revolution” in America, which decresed the American economy’s dependence on energy supplies from the Arab world. We can speculate about the decreased role of Israel in the protection of American interests in the Middle East. However, all these are secondary factors.
The main thing is that the United States ‘ share is decreasing in the world economy that no longer allows Washington to get in every conflict in the region. Concurrently China’s economic presence in the Arab world is rapidly growing. Also there has been an increase of the economic role of the EU, not to mention substantially increased political influence in of such major regional players like Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia the Middle East. Furthermore, in view of growing competition in the far East and the rapid growth of Chinese military power in the Pacific, the ASIA-PACIFIC region is becoming more important for strategic interests of the United States; since this part of the planet has become the dominant feature of the world economy, and the United States is the part of this district. The situation is much more important to America’s security than the situation in the Middle East.
However, this does not mean that the Americans will voluntarily and proactively give up this region. They just shift their priorities in the Arab world and in Asia. Now the United States are concentrated on the Persian Gulf area. After all, nearly 2/3 of the world’s oil reserves are accounted for this region. And control, including security and stability of energy supplies to the West, remains the priority of any administration in Washington.
After anti-Islamic “counterrevolution” in ARA and a gradual transition to the superiority of the Government forces in Syria, together with the growth of shito-sunni confrontation in Iraq, where the authorities are increasingly targeting Iran, Washington has taken extraordinary steps to rescue their allies in Arabia. The first step has already been taken- the regime change in Qatar took place on the direct order of the United States. Now Americans have to do everything to ensure a smooth regime change in Saudi Arabia, where the elderly conservatives represented by the King and the Crown Prince with the same “age” members of the ruling Al-Saud family stubbornly unwilling to cede power to younger (by Saudi standards) and less conservative generation, represented by 64-year-old Prince Bandar, former Ambassador in the United States, from head of the Saudi intelligence services since 2012. Of course, he is not the bearer of the progressive-liberal ideas, but understands that reforms of public life and the political structure of the country are vital to avoid joining KSA “Arab spring”. Bandar is associated with Washington, including direct trust relationships with the CIA. But while the United States attempts to modernize the Saudi Arabia face the wall of misunderstanding of elite of the Wahhabis.
Another strong point of American interest in the Persian Gulf is Iran, and especially after the replacement of radical President Ahmadinejad with Hassan Rouhani, who is less harsh in criticizing the West. High hopes are placed on his coming to the head of IRI in Washington, including the country’s nuclear program. Information, that Americans have started contacts with agents of the new Iranian President in the private channels to find points of compromise already leaked. And it troubles Riyadh greatly, who jealously watching any softening of U.S. policy toward Iran as the arch-rival of Saudi Arabia in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East. This is profitble for the United States as a greater field of population Sunni-Shiite conflict.
Intimidating Arabian monarchies with the Iranian threat, and at the same time building bridges with Tehran, Washington makes the Gulf Arab countries more accommodating. However, it cannot be ruled out and that the adherents of another line would prevail in the United States – to bet on the Shiites, on the areas of compact residence of the Persian Gulf (KSA Eastern Province, southern Iraq, Iran, etc.) for which the bulk of the hydrocarbon reserves in the region is accounted. Also there is always a possibility to stir up Sunni-Shiite conflict, thereby justifying the perpetuation and even increase of the American military presence in the Persian Gulf: Al-Udejd air force base in Qatar, navy base in Bahrain, home base of the Army (up to 45 thousand people) in Kuwait, etc. and there are those among them who make plans to secede from KSA Eastern province where all Kingdom oil is extracted, and creation of the Arab Shiite State on its basis to include Bahrain, where 2/3 of population is Shiah, with the transformation of this new public institution in the United States ally. And then the Americans will not have to bear responsibility for the fate of the wahhabis dynasty of Al Saud, who now lead the country with a population of 30 million, and it will be enough to ensure the stability of the new Shiite Arab State with a population of just 5 million. Especially since American bases in Bahrain and Qatar are in the immediate vicinity. A map of the new frontiers of Arabia supposedly has been already prepared by Englishmen as key experts since colonial times and the partition of the Ottoman Empire.
As for the region of the Middle East, referring to its country’s poverty and political instability, the Americans likely will go to reduce its presence and influence in it, leaving the role of the economic and financial donor to the EU. Washington will reserve the main challenge of the security of Israel, but because of the weakening of Egypt, Syria and the Palestinian Authority, this does not require much effort.
Libya has become “a failed State” for the United States while Washington is ready to give the other Maghreb countries, including Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco to the priority sphere of influence of France with a mandate to deal with and fight against terrorism in the Sahel-Maghreb sub-Saharan zone.
Americans are fed up with Iraq and they don’t intend to go there once again. United States will be completely satisfied with the collapse of the country into Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish formations or its transformation into a weak Confederation. They are a little worried that Tehran has a decisive influence on the Government in Baghdad.
Still Washington simply cannot Contain the Chinese expansion in the Arab world in the front Asia. However, as well as the increasing role of the above-mentioned regional countries like Iran and Turkey.
Another important aspect of shifting the power balance in the Arab world is the transformation of the League of Arab States (LAS) in a puppet of Saudi Arabia and Qatar de facto after coups in Egypt, Libya, and exclusion of Syria from it. But now after a change of power in Doha took place and its policy would be considerably less aggressive, and the Muslim Brotherhood supported by Saudi Arabia lost secular opposition in Egypt, we should expect a new reconfiguration of forces in the League. This will also be due to the actions of Damascus, which does not give up and even has powerful attacks of the rebel fighters; also a wave of antiislamic demonstrations has risen in Turkey. Under these conditions, most likely the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf will collapse their hegemony, concentrating on the regional group represented by the CCASG, and reduce the heat of arm-twisting in LAS. And Egypt, Algeria, Iraq, and other secular and semisecular States will begin to play the leading role, as it should be.
The pattern that occurs in all the countries that have “tasted” the Arab Spring was carefully observed by the Chairperson of the African Union Commission Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. According to her statement, the things in those countries go from bad to worse. The first step – is the Islamists that gain the power in an “Arab spring” country, who with no governing experience whatsoever manage to ruin the economics of this country with a short time span. Than everything is done by the major players to destabilize situation in this country which results in an armed coup d’etat. That’s the true face of Arab spring.
In any case, the current trends in the region, play into the hands of Russia, although imposing Moscow on more commitments for the region, given that it is in fact the southern “soft underbelly” of the CIS and the Russian North Caucasus. Otherwise, someone other will “rule the ball” there. We have friends and allies who we can lean on. Not to mention economic and military-political interests. So competition will be fierce, especially since the United States both have used and will use gas and oil-rich Saudi Arabia and Qatar to undermine Russian energy interests, primarily in Europe.
In addition, the Americans will try to compensate losing of position in the Arab world with the increased NATO presence. And there should be no illusions. As well as the fact that China will continue its expansion in the Middle East, crushing the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. And Turkey and Iran have their own plans which often do not coincide with the interests of Russia. Therefore, this region is strategically important for Russia, and it is worth to fight for in the new scenario.
Peter Lvov, doctor of political sciences – especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.
