Putin’s visit to Iturup demonstrated Russia’s confidence in its control over the Kuril Islands, exposing the failure of Japan’s attempt to combine territorial pressure, Western-aligned sanctions, and strategic containment of Moscow.
Photo: Gavriil Grigorov, RIA Novosti
Putin’s Visit Reinforces Russia’s Sovereignty Over the Kurils
The Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi criticized the visit, saying that Japan had “repeatedly requested the Russian side to ensure that the president does not visit the Kuril Islands.” She added that the visit was “absolutely unacceptable” because it “offends the sentiments of the Japanese people.” According to Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi summoned the Russian ambassador to lodge a strong protest over President Vladimir Putin’s visit to the Kuril Islands.
However, Moscow dismissed the protest. Putin called Tokyo’s sanctions “unprovoked.” He further stated, “Japan has identified Russia as a main source of threats. I would like to point out that we are not threatening Japan … On the contrary, it has territorial claims against our country.” During this visit, President Putin precisely exposed the gap between Japan’s rhetoric and its ability to alter Russian policy over the four islands. Japan claims these islands as its territories, while Russia regards them as part of its sovereign territory. For Japan, the islands remain an unresolved territorial question. For Moscow, however, they are increasingly treated as a settled question of sovereignty. Japan continues to attempt to negotiate over territory that is widely considered Russian. Russian sovereignty over the Southern Kuril Islands is an outcome of the Second World War that is not subject to revision, as the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has repeatedly stated. The head of state’s visits to Iturup confirm that Russia regards these territories as an integral part of the country, requiring development and protection, rather than as a subject of external administration.
A Message Beyond the Kuril Islands
President Putin’s visit to Iturup holds immense geopolitical and geostrategic significance. It was a message directed not only at Japan but also at countries that believe sanctions and diplomatic isolation can compel Russia to revise its strategic positions. Relations between Russia and Japan have worsened since the start of the former’s conflict with Ukraine in 2022. Japan joined the G7 alliance against Russia and provided financial and non-lethal defense aid to Ukraine.
It also joined Western sanctions against Moscow, leading to further deterioration of bilateral relations and hardening the Russian position. The recent visit of President Putin to the Kuril Islands demonstrated that Moscow did not recognize the Japanese protests as a meaningful constraint. Moreover, it also reminds us that sanctions can impose costs, but they do not ensure political compliance, especially when the targeted state considers the issue a matter of its sovereignty and national security.
Japan’s Russia Policy at a Strategic Dead End
Apparently, Japan’s Russia policy has reached a dead end as it has been unable to alter Moscow’s position over the Kuril Islands. Over the course of history, Tokyo has adopted two contrasting approaches to achieve this goal. One, during the Shinzo Abe government, Japan invested in diplomatic engagement with Russia, hoping that economic cooperation could eventually lead to a territorial concession by Russia. Second, it attempted to exert pressure on Russia. After 2022, Tokyo shifted towards the Western strategy of sanctions and pressure. However, neither approach brought Japan closer to changing the Russian position. Due to the second approach, Russia became even less willing to negotiate with Japan. However, currently, Tokyo’s biggest dilemma is that it has no realistic alternative capable of changing Moscow’s position.
Geography, Power, and the Limits of Japanese Leverage
Indeed, Japan can impose economic sanctions on Russia and align with the United States and the West, but geography cannot be sanctioned away. Moscow is not a distant geopolitical problem for Japan. It is a neighboring and regional military power and a major power in the Pacific region, present in Northeast Asia and deeply connected with China and North Korea. The increasing military cooperation among Russia, China, and North Korea complicates the wider regional security environment. It suggests that Russia will remain a permanent strategic factor in Northeast Asia regardless of Tokyo’s diplomatic preferences.
President Putin’s recent visit to the Kuril Islands has exposed the limits of Japan’s policies and leverage. Tokyo seems unable to formulate a realistic policy, as it has already tried diplomatic protests, economic sanctions, and military alignment and cooperation with the United States and the West. None of these measures could force Russia to surrender the Kuril Islands. The visit demonstrates that Japan’s significant economic and diplomatic power does not ensure its leverage on every issue. Meanwhile, Russia can absorb diplomatic criticism, reject Japanese protests, and ensure its territorial integrity and sovereignty despite economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure.
President Putin’s visit to Iturup has profound geostrategic and political significance. It demonstrates the limits of Tokyo’s Russia policy. Japan remains committed to its territorial claims, but neither years of diplomatic engagement nor its subsequent participation in Western sanctions has altered Moscow’s position. The Japanese state can refuse to recognize Russian sovereignty over the Kuril Islands, but this non-recognition will not change the ground reality. Putin’s visit was a demonstration that Moscow remains willing to ensure its territorial sovereignty and integrity despite international economic and diplomatic pressure.
Аbbas Hashemite is a political observer and research analyst for regional and global geopolitical issues. He is currently working as an independent researcher and journalist
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